Jack Watling on how Ukraine can avoid a war of attrition

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Jack Watling on how Ukraine can avoid a war of attrition
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The bulk of Ukraine’s military is made up of conscripts. “If Ukraine is to conduct a major counteroffensive and ultimately drive the Russian army out, these individuals must be properly trained and prepared,” the military expert argues

USSIA’S INVASION of Ukraine on February 24th brought about a desperate scramble among allies for weapons to equip the Ukrainian armed forces. Countries prioritised sending what was immediately available, and what the Ukrainian military could use with minimal training. But as the war drags on, a Ukrainian victory now requires its friends to be more methodical in the support they provide.

The first step is to defang Russia’s military. Poor training and low morale among its troops have made the Russian military dependent on artillery fire as its foremost means of killing the enemy, or driving them backwards. At the height of the fighting for Severodonetsk Russian forces were firing 20,000 rounds a day, and they are thought to have sufficient ammunition reserves to keep this up for several years.

For this, Ukraine will need its allies to provide a consistent supply of 155mm artillery ammunition for its newly acquired NATO-built howitzers. Ukraine is rapidly burning through its stocks of Soviet-legacy 152mm ammunition, and so must transition to NATO systems if it is to destroy Russia’s guns. Ukraine will also need plenty of unmanned aerial vehicles to locate targets. Russia is using electronic warfare to prevent Ukrainian drones from collecting accurate location data.

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