The outcome is far from certain, according to Wall Street, which is predicting potential market shocks in the case of a Le Pen victory.
In the debt markets, meanwhile, the spread between French and German 10-year bonds could jump to 90 basis points before ultimately settling in the 60-90 basis points range, if Le Pen were to win. If Macron were reelected spreads would likely remain around current levels at 45-50 basis points, it said.Economists elsewhere agreed that the ultimate outcome could mark a decisive turning point in French politics.
While a Macron win would likely lead to further EU integration, a Le Pen win would be"unfavorable to the cohesion of Europe" at a time when it faces renewed pressure from adversaries in Russia. Among Le Pen's priorities are withdrawing France from the integrated command of NATO and seeking rapprochement with Moscow — a clear divergence from the EU's wider stance.
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