In a war with the U.S. over Taiwan, China would need to create a global network of companies under U.S. sanctions, seize American assets within its borders, and issue gold-denominated bonds, according to Chinese government-affiliated researchers studying the Western response to Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, October 18, 2023. Sputnik/Sergei Guneev/Pool via REUTERS /File PhotoBEIJING, Oct 20 - In a war with the U.S. over Taiwan, China would need to create a global network of companies under U.S.
But discussions about U.S. sanctions, including from researchers within China's foreign and financial policy establishment, surged 50% in the 12 months following the start of the war in Ukraine compared with the corresponding period a year earlier, according to a review of China National Knowledge Infrastructure, the country's largest database of academic literature.
"The risk that China's overseas reserve assets may be frozen seems more imminent," wrote Wang Yongli, general manager of China International Futures, one of the country's largest commodities and financial futures brokerage businesses. Sun Xiaotao, a CCIEE researcher, published an article in February that argues China should push for more gold-denominated trade to prevent major fluctuations of the yuan - echoing the Russian central bank's decision to increase its gold reserves by one million ounces since the Ukraine war began.
Central bank researchers have echoed the point, with one from a PBOC branch in the island province of Hainan, Xia Fan, writing last November that China should "accelerate the process of international energy settlement" in yuan to weaken the dollar's dominance in the oil market. "Achieving broad international consensus for a sanctions coalition on China would be orders of magnitude harder than for Russia due to the much larger volume of investments there and reliance on its market," said Martin Chorzempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.Some analysts have highlighted the limits of yuan internationalisation, arguing instead that China should blunt sanctions by increasing its economic links with the U.S.
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