The only real debate about India’s economy is exactly when things were as bad as they are in 2020.
From some vantage points, the 5% inflation-adjusted growth expected for the fiscal year ending in March is the lowest since 2013. In nominal terms, though, the 7.5% rate being projected would be the
The populist did put some wins on the scoreboard. Modi announced plans to cut bureaucracy and opened sectors like aviation, defense and insurance to increased foreign investment. Passing a national goods-and-services tax was no small feat. Then Modi largely rested on his laurels, shelving deeper reforms amid healthy global growth.
These episodes are worth considering because they suggest Modi the populist rabble-rouser will dominate his second term, not the economic change agent most voters wanted. That’s just fine by certain parts of Modi’s base. It’s his Hindu nationalism that wins Modi such passionate support among certain constituencies.” instead? The reference here is to the low annual growth rates India produced prior to a liberalization push in 1991.
It’s clear what India needs to do: deregulate, and fast. In other words, dust off the Gujarat model voters thought they were getting and get to work. Instead, New Delhi has relied on the Reserve Bank of India for monetary jolts to paper over fiscal-policy complacency. In fact, Modi is on his third RBI governor at this point.
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