The Siberian tundra could disappear by the year 2500, unless greenhouse gas emissions are dramatically reduced.
The researchers found that once the trees start marching northward in response to warming, they do so quickly – and they are not likely to retreat again should temperatures cool. Under a scenario in which
emissions are reduced to zero by 2100 and global temperature rise remains below 3.6 degrees F , only 32.7 percent of today's tundra would remain by 2500.This fraction would be split into two mini-tundras: one in Chukotka in the far east and one on the Taymyr Peninsula in the far north.But even that bleak scenario may be impossible to achieve without very quick action, meaning that the outcome for the tundra could easily be far worse.
In an intermediate scenario in which carbon emissions don't start declining until 2050 and are cut by half by 2100, larch trees would cover all but 5.7 percent of the current tundra by 2500, essentially annihilating the ecosystem. In the warmer global scenarios, trees could spread northward by as much as 18.6 miles , the researchers reported on May 24 in the journalWhen Kruse and Herzschuh tested what would happen if temperatures cooled after the tundra became a forest, they found that the treeline did not retreat as quickly as it had advanced. Once mature trees are established, they can withstand a lot, Kruse said.
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