The official start of the 2023 hurricane season is just days away. Here's an in-depth look at what to expect: alwx
, is suggesting the Atlantic could be in for a slightly-below-average season as far as the number of storms goes.El Nino is a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average waters near the equator in the Pacific. Those warmer waters can cause a chain reaction of weather effects worldwide.NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is thinking that El Nino is likely to develop over the summer and hang around through the winter months. An El Nino watch is in effect for that reason.
“I was actually looking at some probabilistic forecast information and I think we’re up to an 80, 90 percent chance of El Nino during the heart of hurricane season. So we’re getting pretty high confidence that that’s going to be a significant factor this season,” he continued.
“There also could be some messaging fatigue with that ... understand that at seven days out there is still a lot of uncertainty. So some of these storms could fizzle out, and some will go on to become tropical storms and hurricanes. If you hear about a potential storm seven days out, don’t get overly stressed about it. A lot could happen; a lot could change. But stay updated. I think it’s important for people to keep that in the proper context, because it could be a long season.
Hurricane Ian was a catastrophic storm for southwest Florida in 2022. This is an early track for the storm, which ended up making landfall on Sept. 28, 2022, farther to the south. “What I would like to see and encourage our public is changing the gears of our typical tropical mindset. Yes, we look at the cone. Yes, I know people want to know what category the storm is, but I want there to be less focus on that -- easier said than done I know -- let’s put more focus on the watches and warnings that are issued and in effect and the potential local impacts that are being discussed.”Beaman said now is the time to get ready.
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