Huge volcanic eruptions: time to prepare

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Huge volcanic eruptions: time to prepare
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More must be done to forecast and try to manage globally disruptive volcanic eruptions. The risks are greater than people think

Although the cooling effects of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere might counteract warming from greenhouse gases , the impact of a large volcanic eruption would be abrupt and immense, with uneven effects on weather, rainfall and temperature.

Some 1,300 volcanoes have erupted at some point during the past 10,000 years, meaning they are considered active. But there are probably many other active volcanoes: their recent eruptions might not be known because their locations haven’t been studied, or they may have lain dormant for a long time but still be capable of a large explosive event.

Where local ground-based monitoring is not feasible, particularly in remote areas, satellite and aerial observation become essential. In addition to monitoring thermal, gas and deformation changes, satellites could provide real-time mass eruption rates, plume heights and imagery for disaster relief. But current satellites lack the necessary resolution in time and space.

Building greater resilience into critical infrastructure such as energy grids and communications networks could lessen regional impacts. Global policy agreements could prioritize transport of important commodities such as oil, gas, fertilizers, food, electronics and crucial metal resources, as well as ensuring that countries do not act in their own narrow interest by, for example, instigating export bans that could exacerbate food shortages.

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