Can Academy members' ballot choices be affected by outside forces after all the campaigning is finished?
By the time the Oscars ceremony rolls around on Feb. 9, it may feel like many of the winners were cemented in place weeks earlier, when they started picking up statuettes at other awards shows, or in some cases even months earlier, when they started making major impressions at the fall film festivals.
Final voting this year runs from Thursday, Jan. 30, through Tuesday, Feb. 4, and until PwC stops accepting ballots, any number of things that are separate and apart from the films themselves have the potential to impact the results. We can never prove this, of course, since we will never know why or by how much something won or lost. But because we know that Academy members are human beings, we also know that they and their ballots can be swayed by outside forces.
I believe that this has happened several times in just the past few years. Back in 2002, a month before the Oscars,'s Russell Crowe was the clear favorite to win his second consecutive best actor Oscar. Then, he won the corresponding BAFTA Award, only to have a portion of his acceptance speech — including a poem paying tribute to terminally ill actor Richard Harris — cut out of the tape-delayed TV broadcast, which was running long.
As we head toward this season's final voting window, there appear to be several nominees with the potential to be impacted by real-world developments. For a few weeks, it looked as if-like bounce out of the fact that its director, Feras Fayyad, was being denied a visa to enter the U.S.; the matter was, however, resolved Jan. 26, before voting got underway. But social media clouds loom over two other best picture nominees.
The bottom line is that the Oscars are a snapshot of a moment in time, not some sort of objective assessment, and the journey to them is a long and winding one that doesn't end until PwC says so.
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