A four-game series between the Braves and Dodgers in September can potentially separate Ronald Acuña Jr., Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Matt Olson in the eyes of NL MVP voters.
The potential wear and tear on Ohtani’s arm is not negligible. If the Angels aren’t in contention, there’s no need to push him to the finish line. Even finishing among the top five in the Cy Young vote, to go with a season of 40 or more home runs, would have been unfathomable for most of baseball history.
If Cole and Ohtani falter, keep an eye on Felix Bautista. The Baltimore Orioles’ second-year closer has a league-leading 32 saves, a 1.57 ERA, and is striking out 48% of the batters he faces – the most by any pitcher in either league.Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll and Dodgers outfielder James Outman appear to have first and second place locked up.
Honorable mention goes to New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga, for whom workload wasn’t a concern after 11 seasons pitching at Japan’s highest level. He’s averaging nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings to go along with a 3.30 ERA.Young pitchers have a hard time winning this award. Teams are increasingly protective of their workloads, which in turn limits their stats.
Three AL pitchers – the Cleveland Guardians’ Tanner Bibee, and the Houston Astros’ Hunter Brown and J.P. France – can change the narrative. Former Cal State Fullerton and Mission Viejo High star Bibee only began cracking top-100 lists prior to this season. Brown is on pace to qualify for an ERA title, a rarity for a rookie. France won’t have the innings to qualify but has been arguably the best rookie pitcher in either league on a per-inning basis since he was promoted from Triple-A.
All are the beneficiaries of a potential season-ending injury to Texas Rangers third baseman Josh Jung, who hit 22 home runs before fracturing his thumb earlier this month. The dark-horse candidate is Boston’s Masataka Yoshida, who is slashing .300/.357/.468 but offers little by way of power or defense.In the AL, Bruce Bochy could be the beneficiary of the Rangers’ surprising season.
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