Last month, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at an economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, he issued a blunt warning: The Fed’s drive to curb inflation by aggressively raising interest rates, he said, would “bring some pain” for Americans
FILE - A for sale sign is posted in front of a home in Sacramento, Calif., Thursday, March 3, 2022. The Federal reserve is expected at its meeting this week to raise its key interest rate by a substantial three-quarters of a point for the third consecutive time. Another hike that large would lift its benchmark rate — which affects many consumer and business loans — to a range of 3% to 3.25%, the highest level in 14 years.
In a further sign of the Fed's deepening concern about inflation, it will also likely signal Wednesday that it plans to raise rates much higher by year's end than it had forecast three months ago — and to keep them higher for longer. Economists expect Fed officials to forecast that their key rate could go as high as 4% before the new year. They're also likely to signal additional hikes in 2023, perhaps to as high as roughly 4.5%.
By last week, though, that goal appeared further out of reach after the government reported that inflation over the. Even worse, so-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, rose much faster than expected. And in China, the world’s second-largest economy, growth is already suffering from the government’s repeated COVID lockdowns. If recession sweeps through most large economies, that could derail the U.S. economy, too.
Indeed, investors responded then by bidding up stock prices and buying bonds, which lowered rates on securities like the benchmark the 10-year Treasury. Higher stock prices and lower bond yields generally boost the economy — the opposite of what the Fed wants.
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