Citigroup says there's nearly a 50% chance of a recession, though likely only a "garden variety" version.
This isn’t really a market built for rallies. This quarter, there has only been one back-to-back daily gain of at least 2% for the S&P 500, and the early action in U.S. stock futures suggests there’s no worry of a second.
The latest global economic outlook from Citigroup tells the story, as the Wall Street bank cut its global forecast for both 2022 and 2023. The reductions weren’t terrible — a 10th in 2022, two-tenths in 2023 — but the commentary was dark. The third is stagflation, where growth falls off and inflation continues to rage. The Citi team assigned a “relatively low” probability to this outcome. “While the current episode is challenging, the upsurge in inflation is a relatively recent occurrence and longer-term inflation expectations have remained anchored at much lower levels. Thus, our working hypothesis is that inflation would fall as recessionary conditions take hold,” they said.
President Joe Biden called for a three-month suspension of gas and diesel taxes. It is up to Congress to decide. Germany, meanwhile, is preparing to declare a natural-gas emergency, according to reports.A powerful earthquake in Afghanistan has left at least 920 people dead.
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