Here's how much of a hit Biden's presidential chances would take from a Comey-like October surprise
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US President Barack Obama speaks about the investigation into the mass shooting in Orlando, Florida during a meeting with top officials, including US Vice President Joe Biden , Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson and FBI Director James Comey , in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, June 13, 2016.
According to FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver, the Comey letter cost Clinton 4 percentage points of support in key states and nearly 2 points nationally. If a similar event were to happen to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, he is still projected to lead President Donald Trump nationally and in most of the tipping point states.
Due to much higher rates of early and mail-in voting in 2020, the chances of an event upending Biden's campaign decrease as it nears Election Day.
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