After analyzing all 10%-plus declines for the S&P 500 since 1928, here are the chances that the most recent selloff will lead to worse.
Last Friday the S&P 500 SPX entered correction territory by closing more than 10% below its July 31 high. The U.S. benchmark index would have to fall by another 10 percentage points to satisfy the semi-official definition of a bear market.
Specifically, I analyzed a database of all S&P 500 declines of at least 10% since 1928. Of the 55 corrections on the list, the stock market in 21 cases eventually fell enough further to eclipse the greater-than-20% decline threshold. Is it possible to torture the data into providing a more definitive prediction? If there is, I couldn’t find it. Various valuation indicators, for example, are largely unhelpful in distinguishing between those declines that turned out to be shallow and which instead morphed into bear markets.
That’s because large daily gains occur more frequently during bear markets than bull markets. Of the100 largest daily percentage gains that the S&P 500 has experienced since 1928, 57% of them occurred during bear markets in the NDR calendar, almost double the percentage of all days that occurred during a bear market.
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