What will holiday travel prices do this year? Nobody knows for sure.
Conventional travel wisdom suggests that those flying around Thanksgiving and Christmas, holidays that many Americans travel for every winter, should book their travel as early as possible. Yet the pandemic scrambled how, when, and whether many people fly, and chucked conventional wisdom out the emergency exit.
Yet this year, like many recently, could be different. Or it could return to something like “normal.” And that’s good news for travelers who held off on booking holiday travel so far. Basically, the question of whether it’s better to book early or late is an oversimplification. The best time to book is between the two demand peaks of summer and last-minute.“Our advice is twofold: Book now because prices are going to go up, and inventory on peak days is going to fill up,” Berg says, suggesting that limited airplane seats could simply run out. “Inventory is at or below 2019 levels.
As macroeconomic conditions continue to worsen and the threat of a recession looms larger, the appeal of spending hundreds of dollars on airfare could fade. Weakening demand would keep prices soft and leave more seats available for last-minute buyers. “There will be deals available if you’re extra flexible,” Berg suggests. “But for the average traveler, from here on out, we’re going to see prices increase.“
Unconventional wisdomWhatever does or doesn’t change this holiday season compared to the pandemic or pre-pandemic patterns, one thing is for certain: The old advice to book as early as possible is moot.
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