Banks are becoming increasingly bullish on European natural gas.
if July 22 would be the most important day of the year for both Europe and the rest of the world, as that's the day when Russian gas should resume transit on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, to wit:"while we all spend most of our market time thinking about the Fed and a recession, I suspect what happens to Russian gas in H2 is potentially an even bigger story. Of course, by July 22nd parts may have been found and the supply might start to normalize.
Accordingly, Goldman has revised its TTF price forecasts to reflect such a scenario around NS1 flows post maintenance. Specifically, the bank raises its 3Q22/4Q22/1Q23/Sum23 TTF price forecasts tovs current market forwards at 163/166/159/106.
Data for the past several months suggest a swing in oil generation in NW Europe of up to 0.6 GW only , equivalent to less than 2 mcm/d of gas demand, which is also embeded in the bank's calculations.The lack of details behind Germany's Emergency Gas Plan makes it difficult to estimate the timing, duration and the scale of potential government intervention in the industrial sector.
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