The gold markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we have seen a little bit of a recovery from the massive selloff on Thursday.
On the other hand, if we break back above the uptrend line, then it completely wipes out the rising wedge and it opens the possibility of a bigger move. Keep in mind the gold has been grinding away for a while, but it’s probably worth noting just how negative the Thursday session was. However, we did not break down below the last big red candlestick, so I’m going to use the 200-Day
as a bit of a proxy for a selling signal. If we get below there, then the market more likely than not will continue to go much lower, perhaps reaching down to the $1700 level.On the other hand, if we break above the $1800 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the $1820 level, which has been significant resistance a couple of times. Break above that level then opens the possibility of gold going to the $1875 level.
The market looks as if it is trying to make a bigger decision, and it is worth noting that the $1800 level has been a bit of a magnet for prices in general. We also must worry about the fact that the liquidity could start to disappear, and therefore we could see significant moves. After all, the holiday season can be very illiquid, and therefore we could have outsized moves based on headlines across the wire.
However, it’s also possible that the market does nothing as well, as the same holiday season can keep a lot of people out of the markets, and unless we get some type of catalyst to get moving, we may just simply hang around this general vicinity between now and New Year’s Day. I will be watching this area very closely because we are at a major inflection point and therefore an area where we will have to make decisions eventually.
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