Factory activity contracted across Asia and Europe last month as an escalating t...
LONDON/HONG KONG - Factory activity contracted across Asia and Europe last month as an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing raised fears of a global economic downturn and heaped pressure on policymakers to roll out more stimulus.
Some economists predict a world recession and a renewed race to the bottom on interest rates if trade tensions fail to ease at a Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan at the end of June, when presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could meet. IHS Markit’s May final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for the euro zone was 47.7, below April’s level and only just above a six-year low in March.
The outlook, however, remained grim as output growth slipped, factory prices stalled and businesses were the least optimistic on production since the survey series began in April 2012. J.P. Morgan now expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year, a major change from its previous forecast that rates would stay on hold until the end of 2020.
If that were to happen, and China were to retaliate, “we could end up in a recession in three quarters”, said Chetan Ahya, global head of economics at Morgan Stanley.
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