Russia's invasion of Ukraine represents one of the worst security crises in Europe in decades and is likely to have far-reaching implications.
The Kremlin has repeatedly disputed claims that it is using gas as a geopolitical weapon, with state-owned Gazprom saying it has fulfilled its contractual obligations to customers.
Analysts at Wood Mackenzie said Europe can satisfy gas demand for now and is currently in a better position than it was at the start of winter. The longer-term outlook, however, is more uncertain. "It [Europe] would have to pull every lever in the energy system to keep the lights on – reducing gas burn and cranking up mothballed nuclear and coal plants; maximising indigenous gas production and pipeline imports; persuading Asian buyers to use coal and free up LNG," Filippenko said, noting that even this would only be a temporary solution.
She added: "But in the event of prolonged disruption, gas inventory couldn't be rebuilt through the summer. We'd be facing a catastrophic situation of gas storage being close to zero for next winter. Prices would be sky high. Industries would need to shut down. Inflation would spiral. The European energy crisis could very well trigger a global recession.
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