If Russia openly invades Ukraine in coming weeks or months, troops rolling into eastern Ukraine would collide with fortifications that Ukrainian troops have spent years building
. “Paved, multi-lane roads in good condition are less common, particularly away from the urban centers. Dirt roads are common in the countryside and Russian engineers are skilled in route clearance, maintenance and construction.”
The gaps could slow down tanks. But it’s the missiles that would kill them. The Ukrainian army in recent years has devoted a significant portion of its modernization funds to equipping its front-line troops with thousands of locally-made Stugna-P, Corsar and Bar’er anti-tank missiles. The United States has chipped in, too, donating hundreds of Javelin missiles.
The Ukrainians have gotten adept at using the $80,000, shoulder-fired Javelin system, which fires a 24-pound, fire-and-forget missile nearly three miles. “I've been impressed with their training and their preparation to utilize it,” U.S. Army general Curtis Scaparotti, then the commander of U.S. European Command,Imagine a Russian battalion slowing to deploy bridgelayers so tanks can cross wider trenches.
The Kremlin in recent months has staged 100,000 troops and 1,200 tanks around Ukraine. For all its size and firepower, this army might struggle to cross Donbas without heavy casualties. But there’s an alternative to a bloody slog across eastern Ukraine’s trenches. If conquest is Moscow’s aim, it need not attack through Donbas. The Russian army could roll a couple armored divisions south across Ukraine’s northern border with Russia, aiming for Kiev, sticking to paved roads the whole way.
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