Let's see what DVOA says about the Niners' hot start, the struggling Giants, Miami's offense, C.J. Stroud and the confusing Bills.
is on pace for 5,400 passing yards." But most of the time when you see"is on pace" stats, we lack the appropriate context.
In fact, the surprise with DVOA might be where it ranks the 49ers' defense. The defense is"only" seventh in the league, while the offense is second behind Miami. The 49ers are fourth in the league in rushing and first in passing, with the fifth-best pass offense DVOA ever measured through five games. The 49ers are even above average in special teams for good measure, ranking 10th.
I certainly don't expect this year's 49ers to collapse like the 2003 Buccaneers or 2009 Giants . But as good as they look right now, history shows us that a 49ers championship is far from assured. The balanced excellence of the Miami offense is truly remarkable. It currently ranks second passing the ball, behind San Francisco, and first running. The Dolphins' run offense DVOA of 33.9% is the second highest ever through five games, trailing only the 2009 Cowboys. The Cowboys offense averaged 6.2 yards per carry to start the season with a three-headed running back committee consisting of Marion Barner, Tashard Choice and Felix Jones.
Since 2000, eight of 206 teams that started 3-2 went on to win the Super Bowl, which is 3.9%. The 2005 Steelers and 2020 Buccaneers were strong early despite a couple of close losses, but many of these teams recovered from poor starts. For example, the 2003 and 2014 Patriots had negative DVOA after five games, and the 2007 and 2011 Giants were close to zero.
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