If the United States and China want a glimpse of what war over Taiwan might look like, they need look no further than Ukraine, where Russia’s conscripted army more than met its match in Ukraine’s scrappy, Western-armed freedom fighters.
There are significant differences between Europe's second-largest country — Ukraine, a recognized sovereign nation with friendly nations on its western border — and Taiwan, which has about half as many people packed on an island one-sixteenth the size while democratically self-ruled and lacking full international recognition.
If China were to invade Taiwan, it would likely face the same fierce fighting spirit displayed by Ukrainians. The Taiwanese would likewise be fighting for their homes, freedom, and defense of democracy. U.S. intelligence agencies are usually reticent to release information gleaned from SIGINT, or signals intelligence, for fear of compromising sources and methods.
“There are not a ton of war movies made about logistics, but maybe there should be,” quipped CNN’s Brianna Keilar after interviewing retired Army Brig. Gen. Steven Anderson, a logistics expert, about Russia’s inability to resupply its beleaguered troops in the field. But in Ukraine, Russia’s older T-72 main battle tanks have proven to be lumbering dinosaurs, fat targets for American-made portable anti-tank missiles such as the now-famous shoulder-fired Javelin and the lesser-known NLAW, for Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapon.
But what the tank-busting Javelin is to tanks, China’s new DF-21 “carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missile could be to America’s vaunted aircraft carrier fleet.
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