U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the central bank's staff no longer forecasts a U.S. recession, and 'we do have a shot' for inflation to return to target without high levels of job losses.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., July 26, 2023. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
Powell told a news conference after the Fed's latest interest-rate hike that there was "a lot left to go to" see such a soft landing. Fed staff last November introduced the notion that a recession might be "almost as likely" as their baseline outlook at the time for below-trend growth, minutes of Fed meetings show. In March, on the heels of the banking sector upheaval that had just been triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier that month, they shifted to outright forecasting "a mild recession" later this year.
Many who had placed a low probability on the Fed achieving a "soft landing" now see that as the likelier outcome than recession.
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