The Fed will likely announce a smaller hike for a second straight time, and it could change some key wording in its post-meeting statement about future rate increases.
and even some signs of a slowdown in the job market, the Fed is now navigating a more treacherous terrain.
“If you’re on a road trip and you encounter foggy weather or a dangerous highway, it’s a good idea to slow down,” said Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and a former top official at the New York Fed, in a speech earlier this month. “Likewise if you’re a policymaker in today’s complex economic and financial environment.”that the hikes will soon stop. Such optimism has sent stock prices higher and bond yields lower since the year began.
Further complicating matters, English and some other economists say, the Fed could change the statement it issues after each meeting to hint that it may be close to suspending its rate hikes. “They don't want the financial markets to presume a pause is around the corner,” Bostjancic said. “They can't change that language until they want to signal a pause is imminent.”
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