What if the conflict does come to an end? That will set the scene for another kind of European tension: over who pays for the rebuilding of Ukraine, and how much to spend on it
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskIn one depressingly likely scenario, it will drag on through 2023, with Russia progressively forced back, but Ukraine unable to reclaim all its lost territory. In that case, expect voices within Europe to start applying gentle pressure on Ukraine to move towards a negotiated peace.
Some will be lured by the idea of a resumption of gas sales and a reduction in the cost of subsidising energy. Others will fear America’s presidential election in 2024 and a possible scaling back of its military and economic support for Ukraine, leaving Europe to take up the burden. And some, perhaps Emmanuel Macron of France, will stress that Russia will always be next door, so channels of communication should be re-opened. Europe, they will say, cannot have continual war on its doorstep.
Even if that does not happen, the deepening row over energy looks set to be the biggest source of intra-European tension next year, as more and more countries slip into recession and only the rich can manage to go on doling out subsidies. Expect many more calls for a pan-European energy fund, in line with the €750bn covid fund passed in 2020. These calls will probably not succeed , but that in itself will leave considerable bitterness.
And what if the conflict does come to an end? That cannot happen on the battlefield, but might happen as a result of a change of leader or a change of heart in the Kremlin, as it becomes ever clearer that the cost in blood and treasure of Mr Putin’s war far outweighs any possible benefit. That will set the scene for another kind of European tension: over who pays for the rebuilding of Ukraine, and how much to spend on it.
America will say, truthfully, that it paid the lion’s share of the cost of arming Ukraine . Now it will be Europe’s turn, though multilateral organisations like the World Bank and the imf will also do their bit. But this will cause all sorts of international arguments. Rebuilding Ukraine will eat up funds that are badly needed for poorer countries in the developing world. Arguments within the multilateral organisations will be sharp, and accusations of developed-world bias will fly.
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