The Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners and the Philadelphia Phillies have scored more runs than they’ve allowed while posting losing records.
In the case of the Phillies, the domination of the Mets and the strength of the division justify a price of +700 for the NL East. The Guardians are in a softer division, but have failed to meet expectations at the plate. Cleveland is 23rd in barrel percentage and second-to-last in walk rate. In addition to a bullpen that surrenders runs at a high clip, the Guardians are a pass from a futures perspective.
Plenty has been made about the struggles of Seattle rookie Julio Rodriguez at the plate. A lot of off-plate pitches were called as strikes, but an adjustment in batting stance with proximity to home plate ignited contact for Rodriguez. For the Mariners to win the division, the rookie remains the X-factor in providing elite hitting and defense in the race to beat the Astros and Angels.
The Mariners entered Saturday with a run differential of plus-6, scoring more than 4.2 runs per game. They were 5.5 games behind the Angels and four behind the Astros. The Mariners were swept by Houston, scoring just two runs the entire series. There is reason to believe that Seattle will start to hit, as the best bullpen in baseball continues to plow through opposing offenses.
Seattle is currently second in the league offensively in xwOBA. This advanced stat takes in on-base average, but calculates exit velocity, launch angle, batted balls and sprint speed.