EURO Bulls spur on recovery attempt ahead of key risk events tomorrow which could send EURUSD back toward the YTD low. Will the move prove sustainable?
From a risk event perspective, the PCE data EU inflation flash number will take center stage tomorrow and promises to be as intriguing as ever. The recent rise in headline US inflation and a potential slowdown in Q4 mean that the PCE print this month could prove to be even more important than usual. Tomorrow’s data however would need to show a significant beat or miss of expectations for any material longer-lasting move to occur.
As things stand EURUSD is on course for a bullish engulfing daily candle close off a key support area, not to mention that the pair had been trading in oversold territory. On the other end of the spectrum, we have a second potential death cross developing as the 50-day MA eyes a cross below the 200-day MA. Earlier In the week we already saw a death cross pattern as the 50-day MA crossed below the 100-day MA.
A bit of mixed signals from the technical side is nothing new in 2023, a year in which many of the major moves have been driven by the constantly evolving macroeconomic outlook. Taking that into account and if the drop in the DXY proves temporary we could be in for another leg to the downside heading into next week. Key resistance areas I will be keeping an eye on will be 1.0600, 10630 and a potential third touch of the descending trendline if we are to see a deep retracement.
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