EUR/USD Forecast: The 200-day SMA holds the downside…for now

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EUR/USD Forecast: The 200-day SMA holds the downside…for now
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The continued upward momentum in the Greenback exerted pressure on riskier assets, bolstering the US Dollar Index (DXY) and maintaining EUR/USD price action subdued well below the 1.0900 level on Tuesday.

EUR/USD flirted with three-week lows near 1.0830. The Dollar maintained its upside bias prior to the FOMC event. Extra gains look likely below the 200-day SMA. The continued upward momentum in the Greenback exerted pressure on riskier assets, bolstering the US Dollar Index and maintaining EUR/USD price action subdued well below the 1.0900 level on Tuesday. In this context, spot reached the area of three-week lows within the range of 1.0835–1.

Overall, the relatively sluggish fundamentals of the euro area, combined with the resilient US economy, reinforce expectations of a stronger Dollar in the medium term, particularly as both the ECB and the Fed potentially implement their easing measures almost simultaneously. In such a scenario, EUR/USD could undergo a more notable correction, initially aiming for its YTD low around 1.0700 before potentially revisiting the lows observed in late October 2023 or early November in the 1.

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