Nature research paper: Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes
. Crosses and diamonds are CMIP5 and CMIP6 ESMs , respectively. Purple crosses/diamonds denote the ESMs whose recent pasttrends are higher than the upper bound of HadCRUT4. Dashed line shows the linear regression. Horizontal bars indicate the 5–95% ranges of GPCP , MSWEP2 and GSWP3 . Box plots show the average , 17–83% range , and 5–95% range for the raw CMIP5 and CMIP6 ESMs and the constrained ranges using the observations .
Triangle and asterisk symbols denote the 5–95% ranges using only the CMIP5 or CMIP6 ESMs, respectively. Pearson’s correlations of the CMIP5 and CMIP 6 ESMs are denoted in the panel. Those correlations are significant at the 5% level.Solid lines indicate the time series of precipitation anomalies relative to the 1980–2014 mean averaged over the ocean area plus Antarctica and the land area except for Antarctica. Dashed lines show the linear trends.
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