In February 2015, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla's stock price and market cap could go into 'insane mode' (which was a feature on Tesla's quickest cars back then) in the coming decade. He
As the chart above from James Stephenson shows, surpassing the combined market cap of Apple and Saudi Aramco means reaching a market cap of ~$4.4 trillion, more than six times Tesla’s current market cap of ~$0.7 trillion. If that is indeed going to happen, the core question is: what’s the timeframe for that?
The past is not prologue, and there’s no guarantee that Tesla stock will rise like this just because Elon predicted it and he was right about his previous such prediction. However, responses to the statement are similar to responses to his 2015 one. Many Tesla fans are cheering the bullish sentiment and consider it to be almost a certainty now, perhaps even within 5 years again.
In the 2015 news article referenced near the top, the journalist wrote, “Elon Musk says a lot of bold things. But he may have just outdone himself.” Others laughed at him. Others criticized him and called him a fraud. Others said there was a 0% chance Tesla would reach a market cap of $700 billion. And plenty of people thought he was simply trying to pump up the stock.
All of this is to say, we must at least consider it a decent possibility that Elon will be right again on this topic. Tesla is expected to produce about 1.5 million in 2022, and deliver almost that many. Elon Musk’s target is for the company to reach a production run rate of 20 million a year in 2030. That’s more than 13 times more. Even if you consider that … insane … and estimate 10 million sales in 2030, that’s 6.
None of this means that Elon is always right in his predictions. He thought COVID-19 would go away by April of 2020 naturally. He believed Tesla would achieve robotaxi-level full self driving in 2020. Nonetheless, he has been quite good at forecasting some things related to Tesla, like its medium-term and long-term growth and profitability.— Elon Musk
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