Ocean waters off South America are warming, with potential impacts for California temperatures and winter rainfall
El Niño conditions — a warming of ocean waters off South America that can alter weather across the globe, from hurricanes to droughts, including California’s summer temperatures and the amount of rain it might receive next winter — are emerging in the Pacific Ocean for the first time in 4 years.
El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures warm up near the equator off the coast of Peru, as they are rapidly doing now. Combined with changing trade winds, the pattern historically has meant increased chances of wet conditions in the Southern half of the United States, and drier conditions in the Northern half.
What does the emerging El Niño that mean for California? The state just came out of a severe three-year drought. Will there be another rainy winter to keep reservoirs full? Or the beginning of the next drought? There have been only three very strong El Niños since 1951. But two of those winters — 1982-83 and 1997-98 — were among the wettest winters in recorded California history, with massive Sierra Nevada snowpacks and major flooding.
Generally speaking, in strong or very strong El Niño years, Southern California has a higher chance of a wet winter than Northern California.
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