Wall Street’s favored recession indicator is warning of a downturn ahead, but the Fed’s isn’t
A yield-curve inversion has been seen as a recession warning sign for decades, and it looks like it is about to light up again. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains why an inverted yield curve can be so reliable in predicting recession and why market watchers are talking about it now. Illustration: Ryan TrefesAs yields on two-year Treasury notes this week moved above yields on 10-year notes, Wall Street analysts sent up warning flares.
Economists—like ancient soothsayers divining the future—track how interest rates of different maturities vary for signals about the outlook for growth.
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