Don't look now, but Goldman Sachs is saying the economy is nearly recession-proof.
"Overall, the changes underlying the Great Moderation appear intact, and we see the economy as structurally less recession-prone today," Goldman economists Jan Hatzius and David Mericle wrote. "While new risks could emerge, none of the main sources of recent recessions — oil shocks, inflationary overheating, and financial imbalances — seem too concerning for now. As a result, the prospects for a soft landing look better than widely thought.
A yield curve inversion, or a point where short-term government bond yields rise above their longer-duration counterparts, helped stoke those fears. An inversion has correctly predicted each of the last seven recessions, and in August a New York Fed indicator that tracks the yield curve put risk of a downturn at 38%, the highest since the financial crisis.
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