Arctic shrub expansion limited by seeddispersal and wildfire OhioState NatureComms
are the range parameter, covariance and nugget effects. Due to the large computing load, the spatial regression was trained using randomly selected 5% of the 4 km pixels and tested on another randomly selected independent set with the same size. The correlationwas estimated for the test set. Sensitivities were calculated as the mean of 5000 posterior samples after convergence .Based on the estimated empirical relationships, we predicted shrub expansion by 2040, 2070, and 2100.
We further quantified the uncertainty of projected shrub expansion due to the uncertainty in the estimated sensitivities. Instead of a computationally expensive bootstrapping approach, we used the lower and upper boundaries of the 95% confidence intervals for all the regression coefficients in each 30-year period, which provided an overestimate of the uncertainty range of projected shrub expansion.
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