AUCKLAND, New Zealand — Alex Morgan wore a stern, slightly peeved expression as she navigated the postgame media minefield. It was roughly 30 minutes after the near-disaster, after a 0-0 draw with Portugal here at the 2023 World Cup. She was asked about disappointment, and about how to fix the U.S. women's national team. She acknowledged shortcomings, and later 'owned' them. She rattled off a list of necessary improvements.
That randomness also contributed to perceptions of the USWNT throughout the group stage. Some analytics hinted that the Americans were and are far better than results suggested. They created 3.0 combined Expected Goals in their two draws while conceding only 0.7. For all their dysfunction in possession, they still created plenty of chances.
Expected Goals are a measure of chance creation — of quality and quantity. They're an inexact measure, but a growing body of evidence has shown that they are a better predictor of future goals than past goals are. In other words, the U.S. failed to finish those chances — they converted 7.8 xG into 4 goals throughout the group stage, the— but Alex Morgan and Sophia Smith and Lynn Williams didn't just become subpar forwards overnight.
“We had opportunities,” Williams said Thursday, some 40 hours after the Portugal goose-egg. “We had moments. And it's just capitalizing on them. That's the game of soccer sometimes. Sometimes it goes your way and sometimes it doesn't.” “And even when we haven't played our best soccer,” Williams noted, “we've only had one shot on goal [against us]. Unluckily for us, it went in, but it's been one shot [on target] in three games.”. And upon rewatch of the Portugal match, the xG totals seem deceptively kind.
But all of the worry is relative — relative to outsize expectations. No, the U.S. is not the three-peat favorite that it was two weeks ago; but yes, it is a contender.
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