Despite renewed optimism that Democrats could actually emerge triumphant this fall, there remain some disturbing signs and scary possibilities. ed_kilgore writes
of important voter concerns, previously dominated by inflation, general economic problems, and crime.
That is indeed good for Democratic candidates in November, but let’s don’t get carried away with it: Issues favoring Republicans are still quite salient. A Septemberbluntly asked voters whether a candidate’s position on “dealing with the cost of living” or on “the abortion issue” would most affect their choice. “Cost of living” was deemed more important by a 59-37 margin. And in rankings of the most important issue, NBC found that crime barely trails abortion as a voter concern .
If you consider the polls from the outlets that were most accurate in 2020, the mixed prospects for the GOP look even better. Of the pollsters doing abundant 2022 public-survey work, Trafalgar Group was the most accurate in 2020 per. Yes, Trafalgar has a well-deserved reputation for serving up results that please Republicans. But what if they are as right this year as they were two years ago? They show a lot of the GOP candidates already written off by most analysts as being still viable.
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