As markets head into a year of uncertainty against a backdrop of shifting economic data and monetary policy, analysts are turning positive on the outlook for the euro.
"The 6M annualised wage increase in December fell to 4.4% in the latest release. The December non-manufacturing ISM was the lowest since 2010, other than when COVID struck with all its force in 2020," Englander noted.
"If productivity growth trends have not changed since pre-Covid, this would leave AHE growth consistent with 3-3.5% underlying inflation," Englander said. Reduced core services inflation would allow the Fed room to half its aggressive rate hiking cycle later in the year, and perhaps even begin to reverse it.This potential turning point for markets, widely referred to as the "Fed pivot," would be the "missing link" to catalyze a more robust upward trajectory for the euro, according toThe U.S.
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