Could Trump Trash The Nuclear Test Ban Treaty?

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Could Trump Trash The Nuclear Test Ban Treaty?
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The Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency has claimed a 'probable' Russian violation of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, in what could be a first step by arms control opponents to undermine it. Skepticism of the claim and further investigation are warranted.

reporters, there is no consensus, and"the Defense Intelligence Agency generally takes the 'worst case' position on military matters.” Wf there is a difference of view within the intelligence community on whether Russia is"probably" cheating, and if this dispute is about inference rather than evidence. We also need to know whether administration officials are seeking to influence intelligence assessments to suit policy preferences.

Sure enough, U.S. readings of Soviet tests indicated that the 150 kiloton-threshold was being breached, and this became part of the bill of particulars against doing new arms control agreements. The considered judgment of both the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency was that the Kremlin “likely” cheated.

Even though the Comprehensive Test Ban hasn’t entered into force, the United States, Russia, and many other signatories have wisely decided to set up an international monitoring system able to detect very low yield explosions. The head of this Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization that this ultra-sophisticated network of over 300 sensors, including several particularly useful to monitor the Russian test site located above the Arctic Circle, has not detected suspicious readings.

Is activity at the Arctic test site suggestive of noncompliance? The answer might well lie in the eye of the beholder. For the Defense Intelligence Agency, it's possible that suspicious activity and construction at Russia’s test site is sufficient to conclude the probability of a violation.

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