Sixty years after the Cuban missile crisis, the world again worries about nuclear war
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskMemories of those terrifying times are being revived by the war in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has repeatedly warned that he could resort to nuclear weapons. On September 21st he said he would use “all weapons systems available” to defend the “territorial integrity” of Russia—by implication including all the Ukrainian land he is annexing through sham referendums. ”It’s not a bluff,” said Mr Putin.
The Cuban missile crisis was largely about “strategic” nuclear weapons—the biggest sort, designed to wipe out enemy cities far from the battlefield. The question in Ukraine revolves mainly around the non-strategic, or “tactical” kind. These are of shorter range and lower explosive power. . Russian generals might prefer to nuke military objectives directly, not least because the Russian army is short of manpower and materiel. Targets could include Ukrainian airfields, logistics hubs and concentrations of artillery, says Ben Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British think-tank. Yet Ukraine’s forces are mostly dispersed, and armies can be surprisingly resilient.
America’s warnings are aimed at Russia, America’s allies and the American public. It must be seen to take the threat seriously but not be intimidated; it must respond in a way that is vague yet credible. Whatever happens with Russia will affect its contest with China, not least over Taiwan. Thus far, President Joe Biden has tried to balance two principles: help Ukraine defend itself, but avoid a third world war.
Mr Putin, though, could raise the ante. He might launch a counter-strike against comparable targets—American warships in the Mediterranean, say, or military facilities on-Russia conflict, with its attendant risk of nuclear war.
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