The world is going to need another 50,000 tonnes of tin per year by 2030 to meet a looming surge in demand, according to the International Tin Association.
Tin will also benefit from the green energy transition thanks to its use in solar panels and batteries, both lead-acid and lithium-ion.
It’s a relatively modest amount, equivalent to around one medium-sized copper mine, but investors have in the past been wary of a market prone to extreme swings in price. Tin users expect demand to contract by around 0.6% in 2022 after stellar growth of 7.6% last year, according to the ITA’s The shift in fundamentals, however, has been sharply accentuated by speculative flows on both London and Shanghai markets.
The subsequent recovery rally has generated a lot of churn on the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin contract with volumes hitting a record monthly high of 3.98 million lots in November. But market open interest also remains elevated at 98,474 contracts, implying the bears are largely holding their ground.
The key difference with tin, however, is that the Indonesian authorities spent much of the last decade tightening export rules such that what leaves the country is already in high-purity refined form.State producer PT Timah needs around two years to develop its existing tin chemical facility and longer to secure markets, Alwin Albar, chairman of the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters, told a parliamentary hearing.
But it’s noticeable that LME inventory has started sliding again as Indonesian metal gets diverted to China. After peaking at 5,160 tonnes in September, headline LME tin stocks have fallen to 3,075 tonnes with 535 tonnes awaiting physical load-out.New tin projects aren’t viable at a price of $18,000 per tonne. Nor is a significant amount of the artisanal mining that plays a big part in the global supply picture.
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