Like a top losing its spin, the economy is in a more precarious spot and could more easily topple over into a recession
Colorado’s economy is still growing, but it is losing momentum, leaving it vulnerable to outside shocks and a recession later this year, according to the latest“I wouldn’t say this one right now is a recession forecast, but the risk of having a recession has increased with this one,” said Phyllis Resnick, executive director and lead economist at CSU’s Colorado Futures Center, which prepares the short-term outlook.
The ColoradoCast looks at six indicators — home prices, temporary employment hiring, stock market performance, yield spreads, the premium for risky corporate bonds, and initial unemployment insurance claims — to determine where the economy is headed over the next six months. Late last year, the model was showing continued but slower growth.
“My gut is telling me if we had a recession, it would be mild, not severe, based on the way the economy has been performing,” Resnick said. On the upside, the housing market is showing some strength. Home prices in metro Denver were down 0.9% between December and January, but they were up 0.8% between January and February, one of the strongest monthly gains among 20 metro areas tracked in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
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