By 2035, China will lag behind the U.S. in every demographic metric, and its GDP growth rate will likely fall below America’s.
Chinese President Xi Jinping recently sought to assure a bipartisan delegation of U.S. senators that China and the United States could still avoid a military confrontation despite the rising tensions between them. “The Thucydides Trap,” he said, “is not inevitable.”
Allison’s thesis seems to have found a receptive audience within Chinese leadership circles. In fact, the Chinese economy’s explosive growth — GDP has skyrocketed to 76% of comparable U.S. GDP in 2021 from 7% in 1990 — has evidently convinced policymakers in both China and the U.S. that the Thucydides Trap is indeed inevitable.
China’s population aged more rapidly than previously predicted, and its fertility rate has been lower than that of the U.S. since 1991 and below those of Japan and Italy since 2021. China’s prime-age labor force began to shrink in 2012, signaling the end of its three-decade run of double-digit GDP growth.
Moreover, the U.S. often struggles to address its demographic challenges effectively. Despite spending more on health care than any other country, the U.S. has the shortest life expectancy in the developed world. Alarmingly, one in 25 American five-year-olds today will die before their 40th birthday, with drug overdoses and gun violence among the leading causes. These demographic shifts could lead to an economic slowdown, undermine political cohesion, and even endanger American democracy.
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