China: GDP now seen expanding 4.1% in 2022 – UOB By pabspiovano China GDP Banks
Economist at UOB Group Ho Woei Chen, CFA, re-assesses the performance of the Chinese economy this year.“China’s economic data were better than expected in May. Industrial production has shown greater resilience as it returned to expansion but retail sales contracted for the third straight month. Fixed asset investment slowed but is expected to benefit from accelerated infrastructure investment rollout in the later part of the year.
“Taking into consideration of the data released, we think China’s economy will avoid a contraction in 2Q22 which we are now expecting growth of around 1.0% y/y . Thereafter, a lower comparison base and government’s stimulus will boost“While the data in May were better than expected and we expect activities in China to pick up further, China’s zero-COVID policy will continue to pose downside risks to its economic recovery in 2H22.
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