The number of people stricken with the deadly coronavirus is expected to hit SARS-like levels this week
“Fear and uncertainty could well lead to further weakness in equity markets, especially after their very strong performance in 2019.”The next few days should provide critical data on how widely and broadly the virus has spread outside of Wuhan. People will just have to trust the Chinese government and media to report on this one.
In comparing the two viruses impact on the market, SARS had a relatively short-lived impact on stocks and on China’s economy. GDP slowed from 11% in the first quarter of 2003 to 9% in the second due to the decline in travel and consumer spending. year for China. Seeing how the outbreak hit just a few weeks before the holiday, expectations are for the number of cases to skyrocket this week. Once coronavirus cases hit the psychologically important figure of 8,000, it will be as bad as SARS just as the market is expecting. The next question will be ‘how much worse can this get?’, setting the stage for another leg down in equity markets and the rerating of global growth by the big banks.
The SARS experience suggests that once the situation is contained, however, activity bounces back sharply. China faces a relief rally.
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