Can the Global Task Force on Cholera Control attain its 2030 targets? medrxivpreprint imperialcollege ucl uiagder cholera disease health medicalscience
By Bhavana KunkalikarDec 13 2022Reviewed by Danielle Ellis, B.Sc. In a recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers assessed whether the 2030 goals of the Global Task Force for cholera control are attainable.
The GTFCC intends to end uncontrolled cholera outbreaks on a national scale by 2030 and eradicate the disease from 20 nations, leading to a 90% reduction in cholera-related mortality. Given the current rate of development and progress, it is uncertain whether these aims will be attained by 2030. The forecasted temperature and precipitation information was obtained from WorldClim at administrative level 1 with a monthly temporal resolution. WorldClim data include scaled-down prospective gridded temperature and precipitation estimates from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 , compiled for nine global climate models.
Between S1 to S3, the incidence of Cholera in Nigeria declined from 0.95 in all five scenarios to 0.83 in the first and 0.92 in the second scenario by 2070. These changes were comparatively small, and multiple confidence ranges overlapped. The reductions to 2070 were negligible, particularly when the study considered the levels of progress in the S1 scenario. In S4 and S5, wherein environmental and socioeconomic conditions deteriorated, cholera outbreaks increased from 0.95 to 0.98 in S4 and 0.
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