Researchers have yet to verify that threat assessment consistently curbs school shootings, but they have documented its potential to make schools more hospitable and supportive.
,” told me. There’s no reliable way to count shootings that were prevented—since, by definition, they didn’t happen. The nature of threat assessments also varies from place to place.
The answers have been heartening, and suggest that “threat assessment and management” could be more constructive, and perhaps more broadly beneficial, than its name would suggest. In essence, it is a structured process for getting help to people who need it. “Threat assessment and management is not an adversarial process and is most effective when it is not framed or approached as adversarial,” the Texas School Safety Center says on its Web site.
One of the key difficulties in studying school shootings is that, even though they happen with appalling frequency in the United States, they remain rare in statistical terms. On average, a couple dozen school shootings cause injuries in U.S. schools every year, but they’re spread across more than a hundred and thirty thousand schools. A study would need an enormous control group, perhaps five thousand schools, for the control to include about one incident.
The randomized controlled trial was unique but imperfect. The researchers didn’t have the access or resources “to sit there with a clipboard in the school and wait for a threat assessment,” Cornell told me. “That’s a fantasy that couldn’t be done.” Instead, they asked principals to report data, and some were too overwhelmed to share every relevant detail. The small study size was an obstacle, too.
The “management” in “threat assessment and management” can expand to encompass academic support, counselling that teaches skills like conflict management, or efforts to help with stress at home, Melissa Reeves, a former president of the National Association of School Psychologists and senior consultant atThreat Management Associates, said. She gave the example of a middle-school girl who was identified by the F.B.I. after she engaged with online groups that supported mass shootings.
Cornell has gone on to study threat assessment from every vantage point he can think of. “Often you can only study what is available to study,” Cornell wrote to me. “We keep plugging away and doing as many studies as we can, knowing that a lot more are needed.
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