Business Maverick: From Russia with a middle finger: Stagflation stalks Africa as Ukraine conflict fans inflation

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Business Maverick: From Russia with a middle finger: Stagflation stalks Africa as Ukraine conflict fans inflation
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In its latest Africa’s Pulse report, the World Bank warns that the spectre of stagflation is stalking Africa as inflation surges and central banks react with rate hikes. Russia’s imperialist invasion of Ukraine is fanning the flames of food and fuel inflation and the poorest of the poor on the world’s poorest continent will suffer the most. From Russia with a big middle finger stuck in the air.

The Africa’s Pulse report, a biannual look at the sub-Saharan region’s economic trajectory, said this week that Africa’s central bankers are caught in a bind.

In layman’s terms, this means central banks are hiking interest rates in a bid to contain inflation, which is slicing across the continent like a scythe. But this policy response in Africa may be a dull blade. This can be seen in South Africa, where retail trade sales in February fell 0.9% year-on-year, according to data released this week by Statistics South Africa . When demand pressures are muted they tend not to be inflationary, which means inflation is bubbling against the backdrop of economic weakness – a classic sign of emerging stagflation.

It said more than 80% of the countries in the region for which data was available experienced food inflation of more than 5% in the year to February 2022 and nearly half were saddled with double-digit inflation.

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