The figures used to look abysmal. Now they’re only poor
data are common. It’s rare that tweaks to already published figures make big news. But then it’s also rare for statisticians at the Office for National Statistics , the body that produces Britain’s official data, to make dramatic adjustments. Last week, in effect, they found almost two percentage points’ worth of. Previously official data had shown the economy, at the end of 2021, to be still 1.2% below its pre-pandemic size. Now it reports that national output at the time was in fact 0.
Just as significant as the changes in the headline numbers are the underlying shifts in the sectoral composition of growth. In wholesale trade, the change in gross value added in 2021 was revised up from just 2.7% to 32.4%. The growth in output of health services was lifted from 34.6% to 57.1%. That reflects better accounting of the economic impact of the vaccine rollout, the test-and-trace programme and more robust recovery in regular health services than once thought.
The revisions help to explain away some mysterious quirks of Britain’s recent economic performance. The Office for Budget Responsibility , the government’s fiscal watchdog, had been struggling to reconcile surprisingly resilient tax receipts with tepid economic growth. The revisions have resolved that puzzle. However, they are not likely to lead to large shifts in the’s forecasts for the fiscal picture: no one should expect a cut in taxes or a boost to spending as a result.
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