From Breakingviews: UBS is under pressure to offload Credit Suisse’s local business to ease a political backlash in its home market. The bank might be able to get away with keeping it, argues liamwardproud
It’s easy to see why. Credit Suisse Schweiz is more than a run-of-the-mill retail lender. Interest income brings in just two-fifths of its top line. That’s because the unit combines consumer banking with large amounts of wealth management, corporate and investment banking activities.
At the end of December it had $680 billion of assets under management. Regulatory filings don’t specify which business lines that money relates to. But the fact that it was half of all Credit Suisse’s total assets under management at the time suggests a large chunk of the bank’s core wealth unit was housed in the Swiss legal entity.
One way for Ermotti to square the circle would be to avoid politically toxic layoffs in Switzerland by letting natural attrition take its course. Almost one-tenth of Credit Suisse’s home-country staff left voluntarily last year, according to JPMorgan analysts. If they continue to quit at half that rate, Credit Suisse Schweiz’s workforce of 7,300 could shrink by roughly one-fifth by the end of 2028 without forced redundancies.
UBS still faces intense scrutiny at home, especially with a federal election coming up in October. But Swiss politicians and regulators may also have doubts about forcing the creation of a domestic Credit Suisse if the bank proves as wobbly as its defunct former parent. If Ermotti can avoid large-scale job losses in the coming years, he may be able to hang onto his Swiss purchase.
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