A fast-escalating wheat war in the Black Sea may have a silver lining. Russia’s and Ukraine’s bombing of each other’s ports could prevent crucial grain exports from reaching world markets, and lift food prices up again. Yet the attacks could also persuade the two enemy countries it’s in their mutual interest to strike a new grain deal.
With its drone attacks on the port of Novorossiysk on Aug. 4, Ukraine has shown its ability to hit Russian vessels transporting wheat or oil. That came two days after Vladimir Putin ordered theThe Russian attack followed Putin’s denunciation last month of a July 2022 “grain deal” with Ukraine. The Turkey-brokered accord had allowed Kyiv, the world’s fifth largest wheat producer, to export food via Odesa across the Black Sea.
Markets may be too sanguine. But they may be right to take the attacks in their stride if they are a prelude to a new grain agreement. A lot will depend on whether the United States and Europe are ready to provide proper guarantees that Russian food exports can reach world markets. Allowing the Kremlin’s agriculture bank to reconnect with the SWIFT international payments system, as Putin has asked, would be a minor concession. Both Moscow and Kyiv know by now that protecting their vital grain exports is in both countries’ interest.Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Aug.
The United States will continue to do “whatever is necessary” to ensure Russia can freely export food if there was a revival of a deal allowing the safe Black Sea export of Ukrainian grain, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Aug. 3.
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Black Sea wheat war escalates, potential for new grain dealThe escalating wheat war between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region could have unintended consequences. The attacks on each other's ports could disrupt grain exports and lead to higher food prices. However, it may also push the two countries to consider a new grain deal in their mutual interest.
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