Conflicting signals for the energy industry are like Red Light Green Light in the Squid Game
Comparison with the Squid Game’s Red Light Green Light episode, where losers are executed, is an exaggeration to be sure. However, politicians too often consider their shifting stances to be costless inasmuch as money is not flowing directly from the targets to government coffers. But this misrepresents basic economics, namely, the time cost of money.
Similarly, when California instituted a Zero Emission Vehicle mandate in the 1990s, only to abandon it when the technology proved immature, the cost to the state was effectively zero. But the auto companies spent billions: GM said the development cost for its EV1 was $600 million . The sense that this mandate imposed no cost was fallacious: the costs were hidden but effectively passed on to consumers in higher auto prices or shareholders in lower dividends.
About a decade ago, when I suggested at a California conference that mandates such as this were wasteful, an environmentalist waved off my criticism by saying that they had at least advanced the technology. But drawing a straight line from the 1990s ZEV mandate to today’s lithium-ion vehicles seems fallacious.
So, while Republicans demand Biden give the industry the Green Light, and Democrats scream for a Red Light, the industry is left not knowing if it will be penalized for moving or freezing.
The fight over energy policy and competition between sources and technologies will continue for many years and, as the rise of shale oil and gas and the recent embrace of cheap fossil fuels even by ‘green’ European governments show, the future of the industry is uncertain enough that even without political inconsistency, the investment challenges is daunting, not just for oil and gas companies but throughout the sector.
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